Edition: ONE
Newsletter
Vita Finance
Grounded Thinking. Real Perspective.
Property Focus
The air has come out.
Welcome to the first edition of our monthly newsletter, and we'll keep the reason simple: not to add to the noise, but to cut through it. What's harder to find than market commentary is someone willing to say what they actually think, connect the dots between what's happening and what it means for you, and do it without the spin. That's what we're here for.
If you've been at an open home recently, you've felt it. Less heat at the door. Agents with a little more time for a conversation. Properties sitting longer than they would have twelve months ago. The mood in the room shifts before the data does. Right now, the mood has shifted.
What makes this moment more complicated than most is that it's not happening in isolation. Two rate rises in as many months, now a third. A global economic outlook that deteriorated sharply. A federal budget landing within days. There's a lot in motion. Here's how we're reading it.
The air has come out.
Not a crash. Not a correction. Something quieter than that.
Welcome to the first edition of our monthly newsletter, and we'll keep the reason simple: not to add to the noise, but to cut through it. What's harder to find than market commentary is someone willing to say what they actually think, connect the dots between what's happening and what it means for you, and do it without the spin. That's what we're here for.
If you've been at an open home recently, you've felt it. Less heat at the door. Agents with a little more time for a conversation. Properties sitting longer than they would have twelve months ago. The mood in the room shifts before the data does. Right now, the mood has shifted.
What makes this moment more complicated than most is that it's not happening in isolation. Two rate rises in as many months, now a third. A global economic outlook that deteriorated sharply. A federal budget landing within days. There's a lot in motion. Here's how we're reading it.
WHN
What's Happening Now · week of April 21, 2026
The IMF sounded the alarm this week. Australia is sitting uncomfortably close to the centre of it.
The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook landed Tuesday with revised projections that should focus minds. The picture for Australia is uncomfortable, and the framing from RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser said it best: "the central banker's nightmare: inflation up, activity down." That describes a situation where the tools available to fight one problem actively worsen the other.- Inflation projected at 4% for 2026, higher than the US, UK, and New Zealand
- GDP growth forecast at just 2%, slowing to 1.7% in 2027, both figures downgraded from January
- Driver is the Middle East conflict and oil shock, Brent crude around US$100 a barrel
- IMF warning to governments: broad cost-of-living relief is "poorly designed and costly," a direct signal to Chalmers ahead of the May 12 budget
As expected, the RBA moved on May 5. The third consecutive hike this year, and the vote told a different story to March.
Q1 CPI came in at 1.4% for the quarter, the sharpest rise since late 2023. Annual inflation jumped to 4.1%, up from 3.6%, with March alone hitting 4.6%. The RBA's preferred core measure, trimmed mean, rose to 3.5% annually, still well above the 2 to 3% target band. The data gave the Board everything it needed. On May 5, they moved. The cash rate is now 4.35%. Three consecutive hikes have fully unwound every cut made across 2025. What's notable is how the vote shifted: March was 5 to 4. May was 8 to 1. That's not a divided Board anymore. That's a Board that has found its consensus, and the message it sends is clear. The direction is up, and the data is driving it.- Three hikes since February means $453 more per month on a $1 million mortgage compared to the start of 2026
- Borrowing capacity has fallen by approximately $90,000 to $120,000 since January
- Banks passing on the rise from May 22, with variable rates moving immediately
- Westpac forecasting two more hikes in June and August, which would bring the cash rate to 4.85%
Policy Lens
The CGT discount is in the crosshairs.
The Senate inquiry published findings in March recommending the capital gains tax discount on investment properties be reformed. The most credible scenario from Treasury modelling: a reduction from 50% to 25%, possibly phased over five years, with grandfathering likely applied to assets already held. Treasurer Chalmers has confirmed the government is examining the question ahead of May 12.
We want to be direct with you here: we are not opposed to tax reform in principle. What we are opposed to is a revenue measure being dressed up as a housing solution, because that's precisely what this is, and the distinction matters. Reducing the CGT discount does not build a single new home. It does not add one rental property to the market. What it does is increase the tax collected on investment property sales and, at the edge, reduce the incentive to hold property long-term.
It's worth being direct about who actually loses if this changes, and it's not the wealthy. They have flexibility, diversification, and options. The people who lose are the ones for whom property investment represents the most accessible path to financial progress. The family buying property to grow their income. The couple building a position over time. The individual who sees their future as something they want to control and enjoy in their later years. That's not inequality. That's equal access to the same tools.
Governments have a long tradition of pointing at the top of the ladder to justify removing the steps to get there for ordinary Australians, and the best part, it almost always comes with a tax attached and their bucket miraculously increasing. Don't let this be one of those moments.
If there is a genuine appetite for a conversation about housing affordability, we're ready. It needs to start with planning timelines, and more importantly with incentivising the people actually positioned to build, to build well. It starts with closing the gap between what gets announced and what gets done. Not another policy launch. Not another campaign promise. Shovels in the ground. A real pathway forward. Collectively, for the future we're all building toward.
The Housing Australia Future Fund set a target of 30,000 homes. It has delivered roughly 5,000. That's not a delay. That's a failure of intent, and it deserves to be named as one.
Australians are reasonable people. They don't ask for perfection. They ask for honesty, a credible plan, and leadership willing to be held to it. That is not too much. It's the minimum. And right now, it's not being met.
For our clients with investment property: grandfathering is the most likely outcome for assets you already hold. Existing positions are likely protected, though we wouldn't rule anything out until the budget is handed down. If you've been weighing up a sale decision or structuring a purchase, the window before May 12 is worth a direct conversation. Don't leave it to chance.
The CGT discount is in the crosshairs.
Let's be honest about what this actually is.
The Senate inquiry published findings in March recommending the capital gains tax discount on investment properties be reformed. The most credible scenario from Treasury modelling: a reduction from 50% to 25%, possibly phased over five years, with grandfathering likely applied to assets already held. Treasurer Chalmers has confirmed the government is examining the question ahead of May 12.
We want to be direct with you here: we are not opposed to tax reform in principle. What we are opposed to is a revenue measure being dressed up as a housing solution, because that's precisely what this is, and the distinction matters. Reducing the CGT discount does not build a single new home. It does not add one rental property to the market. What it does is increase the tax collected on investment property sales and, at the edge, reduce the incentive to hold property long-term.
The Senate inquiry called the CGT discount a driver of inequality. That framing is convenient and incomplete. Investors provide the overwhelming majority of rental housing in this country. Policies that push them out of the market without replacing what they supply don't redistribute housing more fairly. They tighten the rental market further and hand the cost to the people least able to carry it, the renters.
What We're Watching
Apr 29
ABS Q1 CPI, confirmed. Annual inflation came in at 4.1%, the quarter rose 1.4%, March alone landed at 4.6%. It gave the Board everything it needed. The decision that followed was not a surprise.
May 5
RBA hiked to 4.35%, as expected. The vote moved from 5 to 4 in March to 8 to 1 in May. A clear shift in Board consensus. The door to further hikes remains open, with the RBA citing second-round inflation effects from the Middle East oil shock as an ongoing concern.
May 12
Federal Budget, tomorrow. CGT reform, Super changes, energy rebates, cost-of-living measures. We'll be watching whether what Chalmers delivers is genuine structural reform or fiscal noise dressed up as policy intent. Based on what we've seen so far, we're keeping our expectations measured.
Client Story
Who: Young Couple · Home Upgrade
A young couple. Upgrading their home. A lending picture that, on first glance, said no.
Sometimes it's not about starting again, it's about looking a little deeper. They came to us after already exploring their options elsewhere. On paper, things looked tight for what they wanted.
As we worked through it together, the focus wasn't on reinventing anything. It was about understanding the full picture. Looking at income properly. Validating what could be used, not just what was obvious. Peeling things back, layer by layer, to see what was actually possible.
With the right method in place, capacity shifted and momentum built. A small adjustment here, clearing down some existing debt there, and the scenario began moving in the right direction. A clear plan, followed by strong execution. What mattered most wasn't just the approval, it was what it represented, securing a home that genuinely fit their best-case plans, rather than settling for something that didn't.
It's easy to assume the answer is fixed early on. Sometimes it is. But with the right lens, the outcome can shift meaningfully, and when it does, it changes everything.
Three rate hikes. A budget landing tomorrow. A property market finding its new level. We said we'd be watching, and we have been. If anything in this edition is sitting on your mind, you know where we are. The Vita Finance Team
Sources & References
IMF World Economic Outlook: imf.org
Reserve Bank of Australia: rba.gov.au
Australian Bureau of Statistics: abs.gov.au
Australian Parliament House: aph.gov.au
Housing Australia: housingaustralia.gov.au
ASX Rate Futures: asx.com.au
Reserve Bank of Australia: rba.gov.au
Australian Bureau of Statistics: abs.gov.au
Australian Parliament House: aph.gov.au
Housing Australia: housingaustralia.gov.au
ASX Rate Futures: asx.com.au